Friday, July 29, 2005

Questions that must be answered

This is year 3 of the Mariucci regime, and year 5 of the Millen experiment. While others have been more than eager to criticize Matt Millen for his bluster and early poor personnel decisions, I was very willing to give him the full 5 years to see what he could do. When he first arrived, the Lions were an aging team that had survived the 90's by having 3 stars at key talent positions (Porcher, Herman, and Barry) as well as Mr. Automatic, Jason Hanson.

He announced that the team would need to get younger and faster, immediately cutting ties with several key veterans, players who had helped keep the team competitive, but were clearly not part of their future. That is, Millen hastened the demise of the team much as one might implode a building before it became (a) an eyesore and (b) a hazard to the neighborhood. Unfortunately, early free-agent personnel miscues, an inexperienced coaching staff, and bad luck conspired to keep the construction project from taking off, leaving the remnants of a building that had been imploded without appearing to have (a) a plan, (b) a real estate developer, and (c) reputable contractors to see the project through. The result, in years 1 amd 2, was very poor performance from the team.

In the last 2 years, the accumulation of talent from the draft, development of the young players from years 1 and 2, as well as key free agent signings, all seemed to come together under the watchful eye of a respected coach, leading to expectations that this team was on the rise. However, the construction project hit another hiccup last year, as the team seemed uninspired, the offense didn't develop as expected, the team did not win some winnable games, and certainly wasn't ready to win games against the big dogs, leading to a somewhat disappointing, albeit not surprising 6-10 record.

Which leads us to this year. Year 5 of the construction project. The year when we get to ultimately measure whether the 4 years of growing pains were worth it. This is the year when we truly get to judge whether Matt Millen had the right vision --to completely take apart a competitive team before it became an eysore, in order to build a championship-caliber team. Now the team doesn't have to be championship-caliber this year, but considering the level of talent, depth, and youth on this team, a 10-6 or better season will be a sign of how things will be over the next 3-5 years.

So what do I need to see this year to be convinced that these Lions will be an elite team for the next 5 years? With the most talented bunch of players we've seen in years, and Millen's concerted effort to draft players from winning programs, I need to see whether this team will finally adopt a killer mentality: Will they win ALL the games they are supposed to and a few they aren't? That is, will they go out and grab victories, rather than waiting for victory to fall into their hands? Because we know teams who passively wait, come up short. Not only for a game, or a season, but for an era as well.

What do I need to see statistically?

Offense:
Joey: Nothing less than 3400 yards, 25+ TDs, 13 (or less) INTs

Kevin Jones: 1150 yards, 7+ rushing TDs

Charles & Roy: 1800+ combined yards receiving, 15+ TD catches

Mike Williams: 500+ yards, 5 TDs

Kevin Johnson, Marcus Pollard: key veteran leadership, big time 3rd down catches

Defense:

next week

8 Comments:

Blogger Air Time said...

In hate to be the parade rainer before training camp really gets rolling but...

how do you expect charles to make all those catches from the IR position?

Joey's never come close to your yardage and TD #s, although he did throw fewer than 13 INTs last season.

The Millen era began badly with Morningweh (We'll take the wind) as his first coach.

Plus, a five year plan is absurd in today's NFL. Play for today. How is it that the Panthers went 1-15 one season and came within a bad kickoff from winning the Super Bowl the next?

Joey was a wasted pick. Even if he turns out great. Because he will be playnig somewhere else when it all finally clicks together. Too many first round QBs go on to have decent careers with their second or third team. The Peyton Mannings in this league are too rare.

2:42 PM  
Blogger SportPsych Detroit said...

Air,
Thanks for bringing the passion today. Here's where I disagree:

You're not raining on my parade! As I mentioned in a comment to a previous post, as a pessimist, you are raining on YOUR parade :)

Charles may not make it through the season, but then Kevin Johnson, Mike Williams, and Marcus Pollard are there to pick up those extra catches/yards.

Joey's #'s have improved every season. If he can continue to limit his mistakes, and slightly increase his efficiency, that IS THE DIFFERENCE between punting and kicking a field goal or kicking a field goal versus punching it in for 6.

Agreed, Marty was not the greatest head coach in the world. But that is in the past. If this team has a 3-5 year run as one of the top 3 teams in the NFC (with some playoff victories and perhaps a Super Bowl appearance), the length of development will have been well worth it!

It's not Millen's fault about Joey -- Millen wanted Jammer and was overruled. Finally, the Lions success this year is linked to Joey. He is younger and more talented than Jeff Garcia, who in my opinion has nothing left in the tank. If Garcia gets significant playing time this year, it will not be a good sign for Lions fans (a) because it will mean another losing season and (b) because it will mean we still have no QB, considering he is a stopgap at best.

3:02 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Joey will never be able to succeed so long as the offensive line continues to be ineffectual. Joey has virtually no time to go through his reads and, when he does, it's rushed. I agree that he has to be able to act under pressure, but it sure would help if Joey had more than a quarter-second to make a move.

3:47 PM  
Blogger Air Time said...

Why is realism so often confused with pessimism, doctor? I have been watching the Lions for 25 years with various levels of attentiveness.

I am still waiting for Gary Danielson or Eric Hipple to finally have that break out year. Or Rodney Peete. Or Eric Kramer. Scott Mitchell had one, in 94, but couldn't sustain it. Chuck Long had one good pass Was it Ty Detmer who threw 7 INTs in his first Lions start. Andre Ware is another Lion Heisman QB who's career highlight reel lasts as long as Barrys run against the Patriots.
Since watching Monte Clark praying on the sideline, We have watched Darryl Rogers, Bobby Ross, Waynhe Fontes, gary moeller, Marty Morningweh, and now Steve Mariucci try to lead this team. And what they all have in common is none of them ever coached an NFL team after leaving the lions.

I need them to show me something more than an early season win against the Falcons. How about walk into Green Bay and knock them on their ass. Instead of letting Sterling Sharp get open with Farve Scrambling in the final minute of the game. How about go into Chicago and take the damn ball.

How many teams in the history of the NFL have blown a double digit lead against the Arizona Cardinals in the fourth quarter (twice), or a 17 point lead against the Redskins in the fourth quarter at home? With Barry Sanders as a running back?

I drove to Tampa Bay to watch them in the playoffs, and they responded with zero first quarter first downs in a miserable game.

Until I see otherwise, I will hold the Lions to their own standard of innovative mediocrity.

4:11 PM  
Blogger SportPsych Detroit said...

Air,
To quote Matt Shepherd: "I couldn't agree with you more."

I am not confusing pessimism with realism. You are helping to make my point. Pessimists have a perspective that is closer to reality than optimists. However, optimists live happier, healthier, longer lives (also the reduced stress does wonders for their sex life). I'd rather be wrong than be miserable :)

Of course, misery does come to those who confuse rooting for a hopeless cause with rooting for a team on the rise. This is clearly a team on the rise. Whether they are snake bit remains to be seen (there is no question in my mind that, unless Mooch stays for 15 years, when he leaves, he will be a candidate for other good NFL positions).

reading your comment life)

4:24 PM  
Blogger SportPsych Detroit said...

NoahDaddy,
The line has sucked in the past, and it clearly is their Achilles heel this year. I am hopful that with Backus, DeMulling, Raiola, and Woody, they have 4/5 of what could be considered a "good" (but admittedly not great) O-Line

4:25 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

i'm with at --
u must be drinking alot of koolaid if u think theyr gonna make the playoffs

6:00 PM  
Blogger SportPsych Detroit said...

Anon,
We'll just have to wait and see.

As far as the kool-aid goes, give me a break. It's not like I Pompei'd them!

6:30 PM  

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