Tuesday, July 26, 2005

Fans root for teams that have the confidence to take chances

We are now approaching baseball's non-waiver trade deadline (July 31st). For those unfamiliar with the rules of baseball, this is the last day that teams can trade players without worrying about other teams mucking up their trade. From Aug 1st through 31st, teams can still trade players, but only if that player clears waivers. What does it mean to clear waivers? If I have a player on my team, and I decide to put him on waivers, another team can claim him, and add him to their roster. Of course, they become responsible for the remainder of his contract, so teams typically will not claim someone off waivers unless they feel his contributions match his salary and/or fill a major need for the team.

However, occasionally, a team will claim someone who is put on waivers to prevent that player from being traded to a competitor. Teams may do this even if they don't want to add that player and his salary to their team. It is often a game of chicken, as the team that placed him on waivers may pull him back (you can do this once), or call the claiming team's bluff and let them take on the albatross of a contract (see San Diego 1998 and Randy Myers for an example of this). A team may put in a claim for Ken Griffey, Jr or Jason Giambi, but they'd be crazy to actually go through with adding one of those guys (and their contract) to their team. Teams who are interested in trading players and want to get them through waivers will often place them on waivers with several other players in the organization (some of whom they planned on waiving anyway), and will submit the list to MLB offices late at night or on the weekend, with the hope that the one player they want to clear waivers will manage to sneak through. This gamesmanship is part of being a good GM.

As you can see, it is much more difficult to pick up an important piece to a team's playoff puzzle after July 31st. So, a team must do their homework, assess their chances of making the playoffs as is, evaluate what the incoming player might add to their chances, determine what they are willing to give up to get that player, and then be bold and go out and do it. With only about 60% of the season complete, a team may not have had their full compliment of players, and will be forced to use statistics, scouting, and seat of the pants intuition to make the right decision. Does Dave Dombrowski have what it takes to make the right decisions? I think so, which means that, as badly as I want to see them go for it this year, I will put my trust in him and his braintrust to do what's best for this team's continued development. If that means trading away some valuable parts to fleece a desperate team, do it. Of course, when I say valuable, I mean valuable role player veterans, players who have pretty much peaked and are not going to be better than solid, serviceable players. Jason Johnson, Rondell White, Dmitri Young, Brandon Inge, and even Placido Polanco all fit this category. If you can trade them for even more talented but raw players who will make an impact next year (not 3 years down the road), I am willing to trust DD to make the right decisions.

However, fans (like myself) become passionately attached to teams that demonstrate they'll do anything to bring their fans and city a championship. Certain teams succeed, while others flame out trying to do so. BUT AT LEAST THEY TRY!!! The fan in me is sick of building for the future. I want to see them make a bold trade, add payroll, and go for it. We Tigers fans are desperate for a sniff of the post-season. Anyone who has been watching this team knows it needs more offensive pop, specifically from the left side. Mr. Dombrowski, go get that left-handed hitting power guy NOW! (even Jason Giambi or Junior Griffey).

9 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Keep one thing in mind. In 1987, the Tigers traded for Doyle Alexander, who had a great last two months and propelled the team to the playoffs. We don't need to discuss how bad they have been since then except to wonder whether the trade was worth it since the guy they traded was John Smoltz.

2:40 PM  
Blogger Air Time said...

Not Inge. And no moves for this year. They are a 500 team. I can live with that. hell, I'll be shocked if they actually win 81 games this year.

I don't mind trading for prospects. I just can't watch them find that missing piece.

They won't win the wild card and they can't catch chicago. Oakland is too hot and they have proven themselves to be an excellent second half team.

7:43 PM  
Blogger SportPsych Detroit said...

Hey guys. I agree not to trade ANY of their top prospects.

I am however willing to move Inge for the right player, and the other guys (DYoung, Rondell White, Jamie Walker, Placido Polanco, etc.) are the Doyle Alexanders of this team. I'lll be more than happy to pick up a John Smoltz-type prospect for any of those guys.

Air, I know it is the safest appraoch to let the team show what it has, and then use the offseason to take the next step--that being said, it just might be time for Dave Dombrowski to man up and show he's got the stones to take a risk. I don't mean pick up a rent-a-player type...I mean add someone who will be an impact player for the next 5 years. We can't wait three years to be competitive. By that time Pudge, Magglio and Carlos Guillen will be over the hill!

9:19 PM  
Blogger Air Time said...

The smoltz - alexander trade was worth it.

12:57 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I agree with Air. When you're in a championship hunt, as the Tigers were in '87, you have to be willing to take the calculated risk to trade away unproven prospects. Yeah, it sucks to see Smoltz's numbers and think what could have been, but the Tigers aren't the first team to trade away a prospect and have it hurt later on. I suspect that the A's aren't thrilled with having traded away Bonderman right now.

8:53 AM  
Blogger SportPsych Detroit said...

The Smoltz-Alexander trade was worth it b/c the Tigers were an aging team that was great once and was trying to extend that era. Doyle was great down the stretch (9-0 in 11 starts), helping the Tigers be in position to benefit from one of the biggest choke jobs of all time (Jays losing 7 straight, including the last three to the Tigers).

Right now, though, the Tigers are building. I want them to be bold, add payroll, and perhaps take someone else's overpaid (but productive) bopper off that team's hands. I don't think they are in position to trade a top prospect, even if it does result in making the wild card. Sure, we still have Bonderman and Verlander, but the Cubs have demonstrated that even a sure thing isn't a sure thing (see Kerry Wood). That's why I'd like to have at least three of them (top pitching prospects).

But trade away excess weight such as White, Young, etc.? Go for it!!

10:48 AM  
Blogger SportPsych Detroit said...

BTW, I posed this question to Sean Baligian yesterday:

"If you were Dave Dombrowski, if the Tigers choose to stand pat for
now, and are still in it after the non-waiver deadline, would you put
in a claim if either Giambi or Junior Griffey are put through waivers when the Yankees and Reds attempt to trade them? Would you be willing to absorb their salary if you did not have to give up anything to get one of them? Is that ballsy or stupid?"

His response:
"I think its gutsy, ballsy..I would do it!"

10:52 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Pardon my ignorance, but who is Sean Baligian?

4:14 PM  
Blogger SportPsych Detroit said...

Oh Zwicker :(

He hosts "It Is What It Is" from 9 AM - 12 on WDFN 1130 AM

Good stuff

5:19 PM  

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